Today Russian national football team takes the 60th place in the ranking as the FIFA-Coca-Cola, as well as in the online ranking author (2). At the World Cup in 2018 we expect the strongest 32 teams. The catastrophe inevitable?
   Responsibility for this is the place 60 carries Russian Football Union. If he had worked effectively, the 5 strongest World Cups (Germany, England, Italy, Spain, France) have played only Russian players. There really is not playing one. However, the responsibility for the failure of the national team at all times bears only her coach. RFS shifts the responsibility on the national team coach. It is the political aspect of the problem, which is more than we will not touch.
    The most difficult situation is when our team was out of the qualifying games, and it is impossible to reliably judge the change in its level. This article aims to show on a local example of the game of the Russian team in a hypothetical match with FC “Zenit” the possibility of her successful play at the World Cup 2018. And the extent to which it is difficult to do.
      To date, the management of a football team developed non-standard situation. The scientific approach is based on the calculation of the so-called technical and tactical actions (TTD), the percentage of defects and the amount of TTD Player submaximal and maximal power load. The correlation coefficient of TTD results closest rivals Games about 0.2, which is as far back as 1986 wrote MA A year (3). The situation is no better in basketball anything – 0.34 (4). In this situation, it has the advantage of expert assessment of the coach, which has a correlation with the results of the games may be even higher than 0.6. However, assess the possibility of coaching have their limitation. The main problem in football coach is that data set called football too large to be able to control one coach. It is common knowledge that the average person can keep in mind 5-9 objects. In football, as up to 28 players can enter the field, for every 60 components of the game with a change in the level of the game to load, 1200 combinations of options in our database …. That is, the coach is not possible, there is no prospect for further growth in the adequacy of ratings. The coach need IT assistance. Such assistance author since 2010 has provided the national team of Russia on mini-football (Ch. Coach Skorovich SL), which acted sverhuspeshnyh. Positive achievements prompted to do similar studies in football.
Mathematics is all. Mathematically may find a situation where the same players playing for both teams. We show how the team would look to mate with FC “Zenit” – the expected Russian champion in 2017. Set Account, excluding the factor of realization of scoring chances. The expected score of the match squad of the Russian Federation – FC «Zenit» 2.3: 2.0
       Compare this result with the expected result in the case, if the team played the same team that was in the field in the last official match at Euro 2016 against Wales. There is no possibility of data using multiple players. From the composition of the unknown by F. Smolova (trauma), R. Shirokov (finished), A. Berezutski (did not play), P. Mamaev (disqualified). Substituting the data of other players while maintaining the distribution of the game loads, which they showed for their teams.
The expected expense of the match 2.6: 3.03 in favor of FC Zenit.
Thus, instead of the account 2,3: 2,0 we get through 2.6: 3.03. Advantage 70 is replaced by -77. That is, the composition recommended by us more than ever the value of which ( moves our team with 60 seats in the 44 – one level with the national team of Denmark.
This expense can be significantly improved by synchronizing interactions within the template, typical for football combinations on the most profitable exchanges with the maximum advantage in the ranking. currently 600. The algorithm chose the most “knock-in” in the data base of such combinations. This probability score, which is equal to the product of the probabilities of winning every duel alone the probability that player to score a point this field. The implementation of scoring chances given as the average of the Czech Republic in 2016.
Total allocated 90 algorithm combinations (1 to match every minute), some of which are repeated. The total aggregate performance of over 15 goals. To get to the 16th place in the global rankings on the example of a hypothetical game, you must score a 2. That is the problem really is feasible. At the same time most players have to play a variation combination. There are many reasons for that combination is not passed, but, nevertheless, count on 2 goals out of 15 we can. And this is not a question of the accuracy of the calculations. It is a question of organization of the team. Coaches also in football often rely on the development of the attacks on one of the flanks, which is neutralized to a simple shift of the defending players. For example, I.Shalimov “finished badly” in tactics (Krasnodar – Schalke 0: 1).