No threat to the existence of Olympic sports.
The number engaged in sports is rapidly shrinking.
– Over the past 100 years, the daily consumption of calories has decreased by 200 times. We no longer have to chop wood, carry water in buckets. Even on the 8th floor up is not necessary – the elevator arrived. Progress has reduced the need for physical activity.
-. In the euro zone in 2011 were engaged in physical activity, 31% of adults and 34% of children. And according to WHO, these numbers tend to be further reduced.
– According to the State Council in 2009, the total number engaged in all kinds of physical activity was 15% of the population. At the same time of the 70 million economically active population of only 7.6% regularly engage in physical activity.
– The number of sports in the world is growing rapidly. When I was 20 years old, while we chose between 20-30 sports.
– In the category of the sport begin to fall into such exotic events as throwing a boomerang at a distance or superiority among programmers. World Championships held in these sports, table football. Every year there are 1-3 new sports.
– In the world for more than 200 000 (two hundred thousand) sports.
– The list of Russian sports is 159, each of which is split up between 3 and 200 subspecies of each. The program of the Olympic Games consists of 37 species, Winter – 15.
A growing number of sports shared by fewer and fewer students.
– In August 2012 International Association for the movement of “Sports for All» (TAFISA), representing a permanent working group committee of the International Olympic Committee (IOC) “Sport for All” at the XX World Congress TAFISA in Buenos Aires, presented a list of 20 most popular and mass sports in the world (the percentage of all students enrolled in 200 countries, including Russia) .. Curiously, the Olympic species was lower than the non-Olympic – nine to 11, and. Leading athletics (9.6%), soccer (8.4%), swimming (8.1%), yoga (7.4%), cycling (6.4%), basketball (5.7%) , volleyball (5.4%), Aerobics (5.3%), tennis (4.9%), Bodybuilding (4.7%), Golf (4.5%), Dance Sport (3.8%), Skiing (3.4%). Martial Arts (3.4%), Table tennis (3.1%), orientation (3.0%), National kinds of sports (including Bandy) – (2.7%), climbing (2.6%), Roller Sports (2.0%), Extreme Sports (1.1%). Other sports (leaders – billiards, bowling, petanque) – (4.5%).
Roughly calculate the number of Thai boxing in dealing with Russia:
15% are engaged in FC
15% of the 142 million population = 21.3 million in Russia
3,4% of the 21.3 million are engaged in arts
It is 724 000 for all martial arts in Russia
The total number of martial arts in Russia, which hold contests – about 30
On average, every kind of martial arts involved 24 000 people
Olympic disciplines (Greco-Roman wrestling, judo …) several times more popular. Accordingly, we expected the popularity of Thai boxing in Russia could be 10 000.
Summary 1:
– The number engaged in physical activity in Europe has decreased to 33%, in Russia – up to 15%. And this number tends to decrease.
– Total number of sports in the world is growing. In Russia, they have 159.
– A growing number of sports is divided between fewer and fewer students.
– Expected number of Thai boxing involved 10 000 people
– All Olympic sports are 100% financed from the budget, all the rest – at the expense of sponsorship funds.
– About one-one hundredth of those people who were involved in the sport, who later became his sponsor (various levels). Expected number of sponsors of Thai boxing in Russia, 100.
– Do not Olympic sports
– A further decline in the popularity of the sport due to these trends leads to a reduction in its financial component, and is the main threat to its existence, becoming a sports exotics
– The popularity of the sport – the main condition for entering the number of Olympic disciplines and as a consequence, government support.
To increase popularity as a Thai boxing in the confrontation with other sports?
You need to create a permanent emotional stimulus. Every athlete dreams of conquering the sports summit. And all the way to the top of the athlete must keep the hope of conquest. Necessary to maintain the intrigue in this ascent. Athlete understands that one take place, perhaps, not really, but the feeling of growth results, the possibility to observe it creates a sense closer to the top.
Is it possible under the current system of competitions to become a world champion? The simplest example – this is football. To win the Champions League in football should be for 7 years in a row to win all the tournaments: the primacy of the city, province, region, two League 1 League, Premier League, Champions League. So there’s a formula that would allow for one year to become world champion. The presence of such a formula could significantly increase the flow of sponsors. But it is not.
Rating – an incentive.
If the athlete will be able to visualize the path of advancement to the top, it will be his main incentive for many years. The presence of the rating creates the main intrigue of the athlete in his sport career.
If an athlete will watch your rating, what he sees?
Rating athlete will grow in a certain sense, by itself, simply because of the physiological maturation of the body, reducing the results of age-athletes. However, the process of the ascent is delayed for many years. Skill level athlete (male) starts to grow from approximately 16 years depending on the type of logistics and reaches a peak in 25 years. Then, after 25 years, is already on another logistic function slowly declines. Thus, the graph of the progression of any athlete (male) is the two combined 25 years of age depending on logistics – climbing and degradation. In women, the highest level of results, usually reached in 22 years.
Summary 2.
– Any athlete dreams of conquering the sports summit. It is only necessary to show him his position with respect to this summit.
– This function takes the rating of an athlete.
– Rating athlete will grow up to 25 years for men and 22 years for women because of physiological reasons.
IF EVERY ATHLETE TO GET RATINGS, SO WHAT BENEFITS WILL THIS FEDERATION?
All topics of sports in one way or another connected with the theme of the result. However, the concept of skill level is usually unclear. Evaluate athletes can be won titles, tournaments, the number of victories, victories by knockout, etc. Each specialist has their own idea about the criteria of success and they do not reflect the opinion of other specialists. As a result, management of sport turns into chaos.
The effectiveness of most of the International Federation of Thai boxing? Rating can not keep a record of fraud athletes. Disappear frankly bogus numbers. According to Wikipedia, Muay Thai is practiced more than 120,000 fans and approximately 10,000 professionals. What kind of amateur Thai boxing, which has not been seen in competition? A key factor in the development of the sport is the dynamics of growth in the number of athletes. In the absence of rating this number can easily be falsified, but in the presence of the rating – is gone.
How to define – works well in the regional federation of the sport or not? To do this, select an interval on the scale of the rating and find out there from different regions. If we are interested in the region’s population twice that of the others, and the representation of athletes from the region in the selected interval scale rating must also be twice the other. But for this you need a rating. And it is not.
How to identify – a good method of training an athlete or bad? Perhaps this should be linked to the dynamics of growth of its results. To do this, compare the rating of an athlete to use techniques and after. Similarly, the work is determined by the coach. The coach is evaluated not on the actual level of the athlete and the steepness of the increase in its level compared with their peers.
Summary 3:
– All Topics sports in some way connected with the theme of the result.
– Rating not allow the number of postscripts to engage in involved and allows to objectively monitor this indicator.
– Change in rating gives an indication of the effectiveness of the techniques, most of the coach.
WHAT IS ALL RATING?
What is the general rating?
– Call Rankings shifted into the region of positive integers the result of party general hypothetical circular one-year makroturnira.
– Rankings – is a result of the participant in the global makroturnire. Imagine, all involved in Thai boxing Germans, Italians, Americans, etc., gathered in one city, had a round robin tournament and that its results have become their ratings. This is real? No! The number of participants is too large to hold a competition among them as soon as possible. In Russia, the approximate number involved in Thai boxing 10,000 in 19 weight classes. That’s about 500 people in one weight class.
– What to do in this case? Replace real makroturnir hypothetical. In this case, any match in official competitions in this fight is maroturnire. During the year the results are collected and for a formula are considered in the rating.
What are the stages of evolution is rated in the sport?
Evolution of the rating classifications is seven steps:
- Rating – opinion of experts. In particular, assignment athlete level or rank – is another option
- Information mixture (“heap-low” rating). All available information about an object falls into one common mass, and from whom it will be more, that will take precedence. The main problem with such classifications – the rating is meaningless and compound ingredients nonlinearly interact with each other, throwing it up some, then the other.
- Bonus classification rating. For each occupied a place in the competition receive points that are added to the end of the year. Thus is formed the final score.
Table 2. Bonuses in climbing (Russia)
Место | Балл | Место | Балл | Место | Балл | Место | Балл | Место | Балл | Место | Балл | |||||
1 | 100 | 6 | 47 | 11 | 31 | 16 | 20 | 21 | 10 | 26 | 5 | |||||
2 | 80 | 7 | 43 | 12 | 28 | 17 | 18 | 22 | 9 | 27 | 4 | |||||
3 | 65 | 8 | 40 | 13 | 26 | 18 | 16 | 23 | 8 | 28 | 3 | |||||
4 | 55 | 9 | 37 | 14 | 24 | 19 | 14 | 24 | 7 | 29 | 2 | |||||
5 | 51 | 10 | 34 | 15 | 22 | 20 | 12 | 25 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
It is about transforming the bonus point system. This is a more differentiated approach. Its main problem is that the place should be determined by rating, but here the opposite – the rating is determined by the occupied site. On the other hand, such classification only for a narrow circle of the elite. Other participants did remain unrated.
- Rating as a result of the formula for success. Undertake activities and indicators of success are summarized in the magic formula. “Formula for success” can only work in a field where a long time, nothing changes because they do not have the feedback from these changes.
- Sequential conversion of the highest ranking in the direction of equilibrium athlete rankings and results. This ELO-like classification, implicitly using the solution of linear equations. Proposal A. Elo, made in 1963 by the magazine “Chess live” is a way of solving systems of linear equations by the method of successive approximations or calculations. Researchers ranking always forget that, consistently writing the equation for the participants, they use a system of linear equations, which may or may not have solutions.
- Rating – the result of a hypothetical global member of chaotic macrotournament, which is defined by an explicit solution of the system of linear equations (the SLN), where the party is offset all the factors that create unequal conditions. Chaotic makroturnir consists of a set is not always linked microtournament (cup, regular season, international tournaments). Represent an attempt to reduce the problem to a linear model. A large number of options for drawing up a system of linear equations does not lead to the filling of the concept of rating a specific physical meaning.
- The real global macrotournament, whose results are presented in the form of ranking
How to evaluate the effectiveness of the model rating?
– There are many variants of ranking in the sport. However, the quality rating of the model tested a very simple way. The main criterion – the convergence of the expected and actual results. Rating – the skill level of athlete. Rating difference of two rivals – in a sense, forecast the result of the forthcoming match. If rated you have to lose, and you win – it’s “mistake” rating system.
– All rating systems are arranged in descending order of frequency of such errors. Such a study I did when defending his thesis. My proposed option has the highest convergence. Very similar, but less precise results showed the system A.Elo in chess.
– One of the worst rating you can watch a football game. International Federation of Football Association (FIFA) has given the right to establish methods of counting the rating to one of his regular sponsors – Coca-Cola. As a result, every World Cup or European downstream rated team beat a higher set of results.
The weaker ratings of competitive martial arts?
Many of the international federation of different kinds of struggle to understand the importance of ranking in the struggle for popularity, but are not scientifically sound solutions to this problem. In particular, the federation of judo, boxing and others have come up with ratings, which can have a maximum of 100 most powerful athletes. Error lies in the fact that the rating is needed, above all, not very strong athletes. Mass creates mastery. A higher level of mass gives a more powerful athletes. Therefore, a rating of everyone who takes part in official competitions.
How is rating?
It is calculated on the basis of all the official matches of the sportsman during the previous year – the last 12 months. At the start, everyone is equal. Each is assigned the same rating – 2200. Let’s see how this rating will change in future in terms of practice. Let A be a competitor to the original rating assigned to it in 2200 in the first match is found in the athlete, whose rating as 2200. In doing so he struck him a 4 blow and missed a 1.
А 2200
А Б 4:1 2800
Next was a meeting with the athlete, whose rating was 2400. In this fight, the score was 3-2.
А 2200
А Б 4:1 2800
А С 3:2 2600
We might find a similar rating:
The meeting was a rating of 2600, but at the last meeting it was 2800. If we simply average, we get an average rating of 2700. However, considered as impractical. It is easier to combine two formulas into one:
What is the physical meaning of this rating of A in 2700? If we assume that all participants will fights in a circle, the average difference between the applied and missed a party to the beats will correspond to the difference of his rankings in 2700 and the average rating across macrotournament 2200. It will be a ratio of 3:1. This ratio gives 500 n advantage.
CASE STUDY
1 | 2 | 3 | З:П | Rt | |
А | 6:4 | 7:3 | 13:7 | 2200 | |
Б | 4:6 | 6:4 | 10:10 | 2000 | |
С | 3:7 | 4:6 | 7:13 | 1800 |
This rating is protected from fraud. Rate is calculated as the party system of linear equations. One of these equations directly relate to the participant. In this example:
To check the correctness of the calculation should be easy to compare the left and right part of the personal equation. They should be equal. Not be difficult to recall their results throughout the year, take ratings rivals and find your own. In other rating classifications change the rating of one party does not affect the ranking of the other. Therefore, no one will notice it, if the rating of some of the participants will be overstated. In this system, too high of a rating of opponents will result in that there will be equality of left and right side. And the attacker will be immediately detected.
In which case the rating can not be obtained?
- If you participate in competitions on Mars, Venus and I, and between these competitions there is no connection, then the system simply does not have a solution. In the structure of competition should not be isolated microtournament. If it has been the primacy of the city, in each weight class who then has to be on the championship field. From the field who then has to be at the championship of Russia. Etc.
Two. At zero by applying and missed punches – 0:0
In Urfa we Shurmanov Eugene is currently creating a site that believes in the rating of the automatic mode. All you have to be considered in the rating of Thai boxing – these are the results of meetings rivals. Fairly simple record:
05/08/2012 Ivan Ivanov Petrov, AA 1:0
Such a record is enough to turn this result into account the ranking. It is best when director, appointed to conduct the competition, he will send the results to the end of the site where they will be shortchanged. Naturally, such people must have a password for this and the necessary verification of identification.:
Summary 3.
– Rating – is the result of the participant in the global annual makroturnire with all the athletes in his weight class.
– As all with all the fights can not hold, then become a makroturnir hypothetical – the results obtained by mathematical methods of data of different microtournament.
– The quality of the rating model is estimated by the convergence of the expected and actual results.
– I have proposed a model has the greatest convergence.
– When we write any equation that defines the ranking of the athlete, we thus write down a system of linear equations. Its solution gives ratings of athletes.
– Any athlete can verify the count of its rating
– Proposed to entrust the rating list of the International Federation of Thai boxing in Urfa.
WHAT PREVENTS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF RATING NOW?
Inertia. Thai boxing is also due to its popularity has inertia to innovation. To overcome this you must start counting the ranking and holding close the tournament on a pilot version.
Scoring Rules in Thai boxing.
– Here is the text of the situation. “13.10. At the end of each round athlete who made a greater number of strokes that have achieved the goals and shocked opponent (they led him out of fighting stance) gets 10 points. An athlete who made fewer strikes, gets 9 points. If the difference in the number of strikes is significant and amounts to more than 8 strokes reached the goal and shocked rival, the athlete gets 8 points. If one of the athletes significantly (obviously) is superior to rival the number of strikes and the difference in the number of strokes is more than 15 blows to his opponent may be awarded to only 7 points. The loser in a round opponent may not be awarded 6 points, because this difference in points scored means a distinct advantage, and the fight should be stopped. If athletes have caused an equal number of strikes reached the goal, they can get the same number of points per round – 10. ”
– In Thai boxing there is a persistent belief that the accented beats need to “write a premium” in the form of bonus points. And that belief is formed under the present rule that a judge may not bother counting the strokes. If an athlete missed the strong accented beats, it immediately loses a lot of effort. This inevitably leads to a decrease in its capacity to fight, getting an even greater number of strokes in the further course of the match. Any attack punctuated a prerequisite for the application of a larger number of strokes. American boxers immediately attack the opponent just was knocked down. Therefore, the latent form of “dating” accented beats do not need and contrary to the general spirit of the sport of humanism.
– The arbitrariness in the evaluation of fielding a basis for judging the subjectivity of assessment, which is unacceptable for the rating. Judges should no longer be willing to see a knockout, “the arbiters of fate,” and do his own thing right – treat strokes.
If you leave it as is – where it leads? Imagine that in this weight category 6000 athletes, but all 5 matches held during the year. Someone had lost all five matches, won one. As a result, 10 values ranking accommodate 6,000 people. On average, 600 athletes will have the same rating. Does it make sense as a rough estimate of the balance of power? No. So rating will not increase incentives skill athlete and they will leave the sport.
– In addition, the victory with a 1-0 victory with a different score of 10:2. For correctness, a more informative assessment.
Summary 5
– The main problem in introducing a rating – scoring system.
– Requires a straight calculation of correlation attacks, instead of subjective evaluation of judges. The subjectivity of judges’ ratings and incompatible.
– If you leave everything as is, the same rating may have hundreds of athletes.
GLOBAL REAL MACROTOURNAMEN
What is the meaning of real global macrotournament?
Rank in the case when the global macrotournament consists of many interconnected microtournaments. But the variant of the direct of macrotournament. the real global macrotournament allows you to:
– Anyone who wishes to become a world champion in his weight class with no preliminaries. This dramatically increases the number engaged in this sport, as other sports do not offer that.
– Creates a world forum of the sport that is a global public relations action.
– The scale of the event will attract the media, and with them, and new sponsors.
– It will just be the universal celebration of Thai boxing.
As it is carried out competition?
– First, a few days, held a weight class, then another, etc.
– At the start everything is rated 2200.
– First contests among all the participants are determined by random sampling, which passes through your computer.
– Rating is the sum of the rating of his opponent and the result of the meeting. The result is multiplied by the difference with respect to 1000 and missed blows inflicted to their sum.
– As calculated in this way determine the next opponent rated each participant. Used by Swiss system, without attrition. In each subsequent duel meet opponents with the most similar values of the rating.
– Ideally, typed the entire macrotournament difference between each participant will be zero. But this zero-difference type of party would rival his level.
– The total duration of makroturnira required number of his tours of the set of empirical reasons – the ratio of the total impact of all matches of the average participant, and their total number. Expected number of matches for each participant (the number of rounds macrotournament) in Thai boxing 5-6.
CASE STUDY.
Consider the rating formula in practice.
– Suppose there are 8 participants. We define their actual rankings and try to detectable differences in personal meetings ratings of their play. In this case we will select the specific account, the corresponding difference in the ratings.
– Let’s see how the participant was considered a rating of A. At the start, he and all participants received a rating of 2200. In the first meeting with the randomly selected opponent with the account 7:3 can be expected, since it corresponds to the difference between the actual ratings of 2900-2500 = 400.Togda rating of A in the first round is equal to the average between the previous rating (2200) and the sum of the ratings of his rival with the value of Δ the meeting:
Table 1. Rating is a formula for 8 participants..
party | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | H |
Actual Rt | 2900 | 2700 | 2500 | 2300 | 2100 | 1900 | 1700 | 1500 |
Source Rt | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 | 2200 |
a meeting | А-С | B-E | С-А | D-H | E-B | F-G | G-F | H-D |
Current Rt | 2400 | 2500 | 2000 | 2600 | 1900 | 2300 | 2100 | 1800 |
2 meeting | A-D | B-F | C-H | D-A | E-G | F-B | G-E | H-C |
Current Rt | 2800 | 2800 | 2400 | 2200 | 2200 | 2000 | 1800 | 1400 |
3 meeting | A-B | B-A | C-E | D-F | E-C | F-D | G-H | H-G |
Current Rt | 2900 | 2700 | 2500 | 2300 | 2100 | 1900 | 1700 | 1500 |
Rt Final | 2900 | 2700 | 2500 | 2300 | 2100 | 1900 | 1700 | 1500 |
– In the second round were combined isolated microtournament (AC) and (DH). And, in its leading microtournament, playing with the leader of another microtournament – D. The second meeting would be expected 8:2 account, because it reflects the difference between the actual ratings of 2900-2300 = 600.
– In the third round were combined isolated microtournament (A, C, D, H) and (B, E, F, G). Anyone got the closest to the forces of the opponent. For them to become a party to B. At this meeting, you can wait for the result 3:2, since the difference between the actual rating is 2900-2700 = 200.
– It would take a computer?
– Removal of competitors results with a difference in ratings over 1000 n
This is due to the fact that the difference in ratings of, say, in 1400 and 2400 completed the game the same way – “to zero.” Therefore, to distinguish between party with a difference in the ranking in 1400 from the party with a difference in 2400 is simply impossible.
The advantages of the rating formula:
- The results are equivalent to the results of a global round macrotournament as form of function and method of conversion (SLN) were selected from these considerations. The difference in ratings between any two participants corresponds to the ratio of N and P to a personal meeting.
- The results do not depend on the draw, the sequence and conditions meet and get together at any of their sequence.
- The compressed timing.
- There are only equal or very close to the forces of rivals.
- It is possible that for many years involvement in this participant macrotournament none of his opponents will not happen again, which virtually eliminates the contractual fights.
Place macrotournament –
Competitions can be held in INNPROMA (Yekaterinburg). The total area of 46,000 square meters of buildings Number of rings in that territory can be constructed more than 200, but with the actual number of participants in one weight category (6000) to more than 100 are not required.
– It is assumed that each athlete is able to fight through 3 on the first day of competition, and another 2-3 in the second. Thus, the expected number of competitive days in one weight class – 2 days.
– If the athletes can not perform the match in three days, but can only be 2, in which case the number of competition days is 3. Mix all weight categories in the same day due to inappropriate enormous burden on the infrastructure – the necessary number of changing rooms, showers, hotels, buses will grow in proportion to the number of visitors in one day participants.
– Maximum number of participants that can be presented in one weight category – 50 000
To summarize: What do we offer?
- Decide on the calculation of the judges in each Hoth duel in the official competition, and the ratio caused by missed punches, and the winner is on this basis
- Accept in principle to the calculation of the rating in Thai boxing. The first time it will be an informal assessment, which will gradually become familiar to all.
- Instruct the rating calculation and representation of members of the Internet Urfa (Yekaterinburg) and A.Polozov, E.Shurmanov.
- Enter the evaluation based on the rating scale used. Evaluate the performance of the federation to increase the number of rating fighters. Evaluate the work of the regional federations of the ratio of men to rating total population. Evaluate training methods on the dynamics of growth rankings, etc.
- To be held in Yekaterinburg in the premises INNOPRMA “informal” world championship everyone in Thai boxing. It is proposed that a trial tournament.
What can it give the Thai boxing?
- Rating soldier becomes a stimulus for further growth. It keeps him from leaving to other sports, resulting in a growing popularity of Thai boxing. Together with the growing popularity of financing. Thai boxing in this case will become an Olympic sport and get a more substantial state support.
Two. Input rating allows to evaluate the effectiveness of various aspects of Thai boxing to overcome subjectivism.
Three. Ratings may be considered by the private component, which allows computerized sport, to create 3-D model of the upcoming competition, etc.
How much does it cost?
– Not at all. Creating the software will take over Urfa (Yekaterinburg).
-Participation in macrotournament until he has no sponsors and pay for the sportsmen.
– From the audience needed moral support.
Possible questions and answers:
After what period of time we can trust the ratings?
Immediately. Rating is transparent and can be checked by everyone. More everyone who wishes to explain its function to check the result.
What is worse than other proposals rated?
-. In their order of magnitude lower than the accuracy of estimates that can be seen in FIFA.
-. The resulting ranking them is meaningless. The proposed rating makes sense to create a confrontation with all the participants completed a year makroturnira difference and missed punches, which can be verified.
-. Ratings in other federations can get a maximum of a few dozen fighters, but in this version – in general all those involved in the competition.
How many days you can spend all the fights in a weight category in the makroturnira? It depends on how many fights in the day may hold an athlete. If the three fights in the first day and three on the second, the ratio of counting beats in all six fights is quite enough to finish the tournament.
In the first stage makroturnira can come together to unequal forces opponents. This could eventually lead to injury. How to solve the problem?
In the first makroturnire need to impose restrictions on circumstantial evidence – the ratio of victories and defeats, the experience of training, expertise, leadership, etc.
Starting from the second makroturnira use the results of previous makroturnira for the formation of the initial placement.